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2018-2019 EL NINO WATCH

  • Posted on January 29, 2019
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Outline

Summary
Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
Pacific SST Outlook
U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
Summary

Summary

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
ENSO neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over the tropical Pacific.
El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance).*
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
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ENSO watch update 01-26-19